February 18, 2010 Bracket Breakdown

Mitch Light's sixth Bracket Breakdown of the season is right here with 65 teams that would be in if the season ended today, a few more that are worth a mention and plenty of notes.

ACC (7)

In: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Notes: Virginia Tech has made the move from not even on the bubble to second place in the ACC in a two-week span. The Hokies have won five straight, highlighted by Tuesday night’s comeback over Wake Forest. Tech’s RPI is up to 44, but thanks to a very weak non-conference schedule this team could still use a few more wins to feel safe. Clemson is in a bit of trouble (though still in the field). The Tigers close with three of their final five on the road, and they will be the underdog in all three -- Maryland, Florida State and Wake Forest. Winning their two home games -- Virginia and Georgia Tech -- is a must. Virginia doesn’t even make the “worth a mention” -- though the Cavs are getting a mention -- because its RPI is up over 100.

America East (1)

In: Stony Brook

A-10 (6)

In: Charlotte, Dayton, Rhode Island, Richmond, Temple, Xavier

Notes: Two A-10 schools took a step back Wednesday night, with Charlotte losing at home to Duquesne and Rhode Island losing at Saint Louis. Both teams have hit a rough patch -- Charlotte has lost two straight; URI three straight -- but there just weren’t any other bubble teams with strong enough resumes at this time to steal one (or both) of the bids. My advice to these two clubs (especially) Charlotte: Avoid bad losses!

A-Sun (1)

In: Belmont

Big 12 (7)

In: Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M

Worth a mention: Texas Tech

Notes: Oklahoma State’s win at Iowa State Wednesday night was big. Not only did the Pokes record a road win in league play (always a plus), but they avoided a bad RPI loss. Missouri wasn’t really in any significant danger, but the win over Texas Wednesday will make Tiger fans rest a bit easier. Texas Tech has a decent RPI (43), but the Raiders are 4–7 in the Big 12 and have only one top-50 win.

Big East (7)

In: Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia

Worth a mention: Cincinnati, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, South Florida

Notes: The Big East bubble is a big mess. Cincinnati and South Florida were among the very last teams omitted. The Bearcats have some good wins (Maryland, Vanderbilt), but it’s hard to overlook the fact that they have nine losses with five regular-season games remaining. South Florida beat Cincinnati at home Tuesday night to end a two-game skid. The Bulls have two top-15 wins and three top-50 wins, but they also have nine losses, including five to teams ranked 60 or worse (including No. 200 Central Michigan). Connecticut has renewed life after winning at Villanova, but the Huskies are 15–11 overall and have only one road win. Marquette has won five straight and will have an opportunity to make it six straight when Pittsburgh visits Thursday night.

Big Sky (1)

In: Weber State

Big South (1)

In: Coastal Carolina

Big Ten (5)

In: Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Notes: Illinois’ RPI is 71, but the Illini have four top-35 RPI wins, including two on the road -- at Wisconsin and at Clemson. They have some serious flaws on their resume (vs. Bradley, vs. Utah), but there is also a lot to get excited about. Northwestern lost at home to Penn State Wednesday night to play itself way off the “worth a mention” line.

Big West (1)

In: UC-Santa Barbara

Colonial (1)

In: Old Dominion

Notes: There are several CAA teams that have flirted with at-large status, but right now none appears very strong candidates for the field.

C-USA (2)

In: UAB, UTEP

Worth a mention: Memphis, Tulsa

Notes: UAB’s once rock-solid resume isn’t quite as attractive. It’s still solid, but each of the Blazers’ five losses is to teams ranked 50 or worse in the RPI. They do have home wins over Butler and Cincinnati, but it is in their best interest to avoid any more bad losses. Memphis is very quietly 9–2 in the league, but the Tigers have only one top-60 win. Four of their six losses are to top-20 teams, but there just isn’t enough on the resume to warrant a bid -- for now.

Horizon (1)

In: Butler

Ivy (1)

In: Cornell

MAAC (1)

In: Siena

MAC (1)

In: Kent State

MEAC (1)

In: Morgan State

MVC (1)

In: Northern Iowa

MWC (3)

In: BYU, New Mexico, UNLV

Worth a mention: San Diego State

Notes: UNLV is playing its way back to the bubble. The Rebels have lost three straight, at home to New Mexico and on the road to San Diego State and Utah. UNLV now has two losses against Utah (RPI 143). San Diego State is getting more intriguing each week. The Aztecs beat UNLV at home last Saturday and have won five of their past six games. With an RPI of 39, SDSU will remain in the discussion up to Selection Sunday barring a collapse down the stretch.

Northeast (1)

In: Robert Morris

OVC (1)

In: Murray State

Pac-10 (1)

In: California

Notes: Arizona State and Washington could play their way onto the bubble with strong finishes in the regular season, but right now they aren’t really in the picture.

Patriot (1)

In: Lehigh

SEC (5)

In: Florida, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Worth a mention: Mississippi State

Notes: Florida and Ole Miss were among the final teams in. They play each other Saturday in a huge game in Oxford. Ole Miss has an opportunity to pick up a big win tonight when Vanderbilt visits the Tad Pad. The Rebels will be in solid shape with a sweep this week. Mississippi State missed a great opportunity Tuesday night against Kentucky. The Bulldogs are clearly on the outside looking in right now.

Southern (1)

In: Wofford

Southland (1)

In: Sam Houston

Summit (1)

In: Oakland

Sun Belt (1)

In: Arkansas State

SWAC (1)

In: Jackson State

WAC (1)

In: Utah State

WCC (1)

In: Gonzaga

Worth a mention: Saint Mary’s

Notes: Saint Mary’s is 21–5 with an RPI of 45, which puts them very much in the conversation. The knock against this team is its lack of quality wins, but the season-opening beatdown vs. San Diego State is looking better and better, and the Gaels beat Utah State (RPI 36) in Logan -- something that doesn’t happen very often. They will have to win out and get to the WCC finals to remain in the discussion.