NFL free agency begins Friday. Let all hell break loose.
Unless the players and owners pound out a new collective bargaining agreement by the opening day of free agency -- an occurrence that is about as likely as Democrats and Republicans marching arm in arm through the National Mall to celebrate collaboration on health care reform -- the free agent player market as we know it will cease to be. And it’s anybody’s guess what that means.
Oh, we know the legal details, which were written into the existing CBA that expires in a year. The 2010 season will be uncapped, with no upper and lower spending limits for teams. Players with four or five years of NFL experience, who in previous years would have been unrestricted free agents, now will be restricted. The eight teams that made the division round of the playoffs will have signing limitations. And teams will be able to dump contracts without penalty because there won’t be a salary cap to take hits anymore.
So, instead of teams being forced to spend about evenly, payrolls this year could be anywhere from, in baseball terms, Yankees-esque to Pirates-like. There will be fewer unrestricted free agents, which could mean there will be a feeding frenzy on the best of the bunch, thus helping guys such as Julius Peppers get even bigger blockbuster deals. And there will be more restricted free agents, which could mean less player movement overall, considering that the signing of a restricted free agent who has been tendered an offer by his current team requires potential suitors to surrender more than just money (usually one or two draft picks as well). On the other hand, more of these restricted free agents will be desirable than in past years, so maybe teams will pay the additional premium to get them. And with a window for teams to dump the bloated contracts of underperformers, we might see a bigger stream of big-name guys who might typically be retained for cap reasons to suddenly become available.
Yes, there are uncertainties aplenty. Of course, they pale in comparison to the big one looming on the horizon: Will a new CBA be approved by March 2011? If not, the NFL might choose to lock out the players, putting the 2011 season in peril.
But let’s not fret about that now. Instead, let’s take a quick glance at the top players who will be coveted by teams in the weeks and months to come.
Click here to view Athlon's Free Agent Tracker
U: Unrestricted free agent.
R: Restricted free agent (three years of NFL experience).
U/R: Ordinarily would be an unrestricted free agent (four or five years of NFL experience), but will be restricted without a new CBA by March 5.
QUARTERBACKS. “Covet” would be overstating the sentiment with this nondescript group that has no top-level or even mid-level unrestricted options. The likes of Kyle Orton and Jason Campbell probably will be retained, so QB-needy teams figure to have better luck in the draft, though it isn’t loaded, either.
Top QBs
1. Kyle Orton, Broncos (U/R)
2. Jason Campbell, Redskins (U/R)
3. Matt Moore, Panthers (R)
4. Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings (U/R)
5. Bruce Gradkowski, Raiders (R)
6. Chad Pennington, Dolphins (U)
7. Daunte Culpepper, Lions (U)
RUNNING BACKS. A gold jacket awaits LaDainian Tomlinson in Canton someday, but for now he’s looking for work as the biggest star among the unrestricted crowd after the Chargers cut him loose. Based on last season’s performances, though, soon-to-be-jettisoned Thomas Jones might be the best option out there after Pierre Thomas, who is restricted. Chester Taylor hasn’t touched the ball a lot since Adrian Peterson arrived in Minnesota, but when he has, good things have tended to happen. If this were 2006, teams would be absolutely giddy about the possibility of signing Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook (who will be released Friday), Willie Parker, Larry Johnson or Jamal Lewis. But this is 2010, and teams will be looking at them for depth.
Top RBs
1. Pierre Thomas, Saints (R)
2. Thomas Jones, Jets (U)
3. Chester Taylor, Vikings (U)
4. Jerome Harrison, Browns (U/R)
5. Leon Washington, Jets (U/R)
6. Darren Sproles, Chargers (U/R)
7. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins (U/R)
8. Brian Westbrook, Eagles (U)
9. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers (U)
10. Jason Snelling, Falcons (R)
11. Cadillac Williams, Bucs (U/R)
12. Willie Parker, Steelers (U)
13. Larry Johnson, Bengals (U)
14. LenDale White, Titans (U/R)
15. Kevin Faulk, Patriots (U)
16. Jamal Lewis, Browns (U)
Top FBs
1. Le’Ron McClain, Ravens (R)
2. Leonard Weaver, Eagles (U/R)
3. Tony Richardson, Jets (U)
WIDE RECEIVERS. Teams would be getting ready to slobber all over Miles Austin, Vincent Jackson and Brandon Marshall if it weren’t for the restricted status that likely will be thrust upon them (plus the baggage Marshall carries because of past legal and behavior issues). Among the unrestricted wideouts, the best of the bunch are Derrick Mason (who might yet retire -- again), Chris Chambers and Kevin Walter. Terrell Owens? Yeah, some team will look at the quarterbacks throwing to him last year and figure his lousy season wasn’t entirely his fault.
Top WRs
1. Vincent Jackson, Chargers (U/R)
2. Miles Austin, Cowboys (U/R)
3. Brandon Marshall, Broncos (U/R)
4. Braylon Edwards, Jets (U/R)
5. Steve Breaston, Cardinals (R)
6. Derrick Mason, Ravens (U)
7. Malcom Floyd, Chargers (U/R)
8. Kevin Walter, Texans (U)
9. Chris Chambers, Chiefs (U)
10. Terrell Owens, Bills (U)
11. Antonio Bryant, Bucs (U)
12. Lance Moore, Saints (U/R)
13. Torry Holt, Jaguars (U)
TIGHT ENDS. Though he missed half of last season with a blown-out knee, Daniels is the only tight end on the market who generates much excitement -- and the Texans, thanks to the new rules of free agency that figure to restrict Daniels’ movement, are unlikely to let him go.
Top TEs
1. Owen Daniels, Texans (U/R)
2. Bo Scaife, Titans (U/R)
3. Tony Scheffler, Broncos (U/R)
4. Anthony Fasano, Dolphins (U/R)
5. Benjamin Watson, Patriots (U)
OFFENSIVE TACKLES. The Saints must figure out what to do at left tackle, where restricted free agent Jermon Bushrod helped them win the Super Bowl but former Pro Bowler Jammal Brown will be back after missing all of last season (hip, sports hernia). Brown will probably be a restricted free agent, too, so either he or Bushrod is likely to become trade bait if not signed away. Several solid tackles are out there, but the unrestricted ones (Chad Clifton and Mike Gandy) have a lot of mileage on them.
Top OTs
1. Jammal Brown, Saints (U/R)
2. Marcus McNeill, Chargers (U/R)
3. Jared Gaither, Ravens (R)
4. Charlie Johnson, Colts (U/R)
5. Chad Clifton, Packers (U)
6. Tyson Clabo, Falcons (U/R)
7. Mike Gandy, Cardinals (U)
8. Jermon Bushrod, Saints (R)
9. Ryan Cook, Vikings (U/R)
10. Tony Pashos, 49ers (U)
GUARDS. The top guards -- Jahri Evans, Logan Mankins and Harvey Dahl -- will be bound by the CBA-mandated new rules of free agency. After them, there isn’t much, although Rex Hadnot is intriguing.
Top Gs
1. Jahri Evans, Saints (U/R)
2. Logan Mankins, Patriots (U/R)
3. Harvey Dahl, Falcons (U/R)
4. Rex Hadnot, Browns (U)
5. Russ Hochstein, Broncos (U)
CENTERS. At 39, Kevin Mawae still would represent an upgrade at center for many teams. He’s unrestricted and will be allowed to test the market, but he’d like to stay in Tennessee. If he does, that won’t leave much for the rest of the league to pick over.
Top Cs
1. Kevin Mawae, Titans (U)
2. Lyle Sendlein, Cardinals (R)
3. Casey Rabach, Redskins (U)
4. Nick Cole, Eagles (U/R)
5. Chris Spencer, Seahawks (U/R)
DEFENSIVE ENDS. The cream of the free agent crop is Julius Peppers, who finally appears poised to get out of Carolina. When Peppers is on -- admittedly, sometimes he isn’t -- he provides a solution to almost any team’s pass-rush woes. Aaron Kampman was switched to outside linebacker in Green Bay last season and struggled, but the unrestricted free agent figures to sign with a team that will let him go back to rushing the passer from a three-point stance, where he was quite productive. Marcus Spears and Ray Edwards would be more realistic options if they weren’t about to become restricted free agents. The Raiders took a good one off the market when they gave Richard Seymour the franchise tag.
Top DEs
1. Julius Peppers, Panthers (U)
2. Marcus Spears, Cowboys (U/R)
3. Aaron Kampman, Packers (U)
4. Ray Edwards, Vikings (U/R)
5. Kyle Vanden Bosch, Titans (U)
6. Marques Douglas, Jets (U)
7. Dwan Edwards, Ravens (U)
8. Jarvis Green, Patriots (U)
9. Adewale Ogunleye, Bears (U)
10. Tyler Brayton, Panthers (U)
DEFENSIVE TACKLES. How valuable is the nose tackle in a 3-4 defense? So valuable that three of them were franchised by their teams so they wouldn’t get away (New England’s Vince Wilfork, San Francisco’s Aubrayo Franklin and Green Bay’s Ryan Pickett) and one has already been re-signed (Pittsburgh’s Casey Hampton). And the best of the remaining DTs are restricted.
Top DTs
1. Tony Brown, Titans (U/R)
2. Barry Cofield, Giants (U/R)
3. Daniel Muir, Colts (R)
4. Antonio Johnson, Colts (R)
5. Remi Ayodele, Saints (R)
OUTSIDE LINEBACKERS. Unlike Kampman, Elvis Dumervil blossomed while moving from defensive end to outside linebacker, leading the league with 17 sacks. The Broncos will try to keep the restricted free agent, but the coordinator who helped Dumervil emerge in Denver, Mike Nolan, now is in Miami, so stay tuned. A couple of Dolphin pass rushers who have seen better days, Jason Taylor and Joey Porter, join Keith Bulluck and Scott Fujita as the best unrestricted options. Several likely restricted players have solid credentials, including Shawne Merriman, Rocky McIntosh, Thomas Davis and Thomas Howard.
Top OLBs
1. Elvis Dumervil, Broncos (U/R)
2. Shawne Merriman, Chargers (U/R)
3. Rocky McIntosh, Redskins (U/R)
4. Thomas Davis, Panthers (U/R)
5. Keith Bulluck, Titans (U)
6. Thomas Howard, Raiders (U/R)
7. Scott Fujita, Saints (U)
8. Joey Porter, Dolphins (U)
9. Jason Taylor, Dolphins (U)
10. Mike Vrabel, Chiefs (U)
INSIDE LINEBACKERS. The Colts know full well how important Gary Brackett is to their defense, so they’ll do everything they can to keep the unrestricted free agent in the fold. If they do, that will leave Karlos Dansby as the best remaining option. DeMeco Ryans and Barrett Ruud head the list of several quality free agents who, thanks to the expected uncapped year, will be restricted in their movement.
Top ILBs
1. Gary Brackett, Colts (U)
2. Karlos Dansby, Cardinals (U)
3. DeMeco Ryans, Texans (U/R)
4. Barrett Ruud, Bucs (U/R)
5. Kirk Morrison, Raiders (U/R)
6. Stephen Tulloch, Titans (U/R)
7. D’Qwell Jackson, Browns (U/R)
8. Derrick Johnson, Chiefs (U/R)
9. Antonio Pierce, Giants (U)
10. Larry Foote, Lions (U)
CORNERBACKS. If you’re looking for a Darrelle Revis or Nnamdi Asomugha, forget it. But if you’re looking for a solid No. 2 cornerback, Dunta Robinson and Leigh Bodden are good unrestricted options. Though likely restricted in their ability to move, Richard Marshall, Marlin Jackson and Carlos Rogers are right there with them. After restricted free agent Tramon Williams, the drop-off is steep.
Top CBs
1. Leigh Bodden, Patriots (U)
2. Richard Marshall, Panthers (U/R)
3. Dunta Robinson, Texans (U)
4. Carlos Rogers, Redskins (U/R)
5. Marlin Jackson, Colts (U/R)
6. Tramon Williams, Packers (R)
SAFETIES. Darren Sharper’s big plays in the secondary were a huge part of the Saints’ success last season, but they didn’t franchise him and so he could be gone after one year in New Orleans. Everybody else who could have that kind of an impact on a new team will be a restricted free agent -- barring a miracle in the form of a new labor agreement by Friday.
Top Ss
1. Nick Collins, Packers (U/R)
2. Oshiomogho Atogwe, Rams (U/R)
3. Antoine Bethea, Colts (U/R)
4. Darren Sharper, Saints (U)
5. Bernard Pollard, Texans (U/R)
6. Roman Harper, Saints (U/R)
7. Dawan Landry, Ravens (U/R)
8. Ryan Clark, Steelers (U)
9. Abram Elam, Browns (U/R)
10. George Wilson, Bills (U/R)
