A Lockout Would Cost The NFL Too Much

We’ve been spoiled the last few years, there’s no doubt about it. In each of the last three seasons the Super Bowl has come down to the final few minutes. Twice it was decided with 35 seconds to play. Each of the past seven Super Bowl games, in fact, has been within seven points in the fourth quarter.

No wonder an average of 106.5 million people watched the Saints beat the Colts, 31-17, in Super Bowl XLIV -- more than watched the legendary series finale of M*A*S*H back in 1983. Games were regularly sold out in most markets. Nineteen teams finished within two games of a postseason playoff berth.

The NFL is an $8 billion industry that boasts worldwide popularity. It is big enough to sustain its own television network, a satellite radio station devoted to it and countless cottage industries built around its events.

The NFL, by any calculation, is at the height of its all-time popularity.

So it would be a shame if the owners and players managed to screw that up.

Unfortunately, that’s exactly what they seem to be intent on doing. The two sides are still inching toward Armageddon -- a 2011 lockout that many on both sides believe is inevitable. They almost certainly won’t come to an agreement before March 5, the last day to salvage the salary cap, which has led to unprecedented parity and stability.

And if they don’t have a new collective bargaining agreement before then, there may be no turning back before the existing agreement expires in March 2011.

There’s still plenty of time, of course, and history has proven that in all sports new CBAs are rarely signed until the last possible moment. But the fact that each side is willing to even toy with the idea of walking away from such an insanely profitable business proves how dire the situation has become.

“We have to sit at the table and we have to get an agreement that works for everybody,” NFL commissioner Roger Goodell said at his annual State of the NFL press conference two days before Super Bowl XLIV. “That’s what people expect. They expect solutions. And I think it’s our responsibility to sit down at that table and work out the issues. They want solutions, and that’s what we should deliver.”

The problem, of course, is they don’t have any current solutions -- only problems. The players want a bigger share of the revenue, even though they already get nearly 60 percent of the “designated gross revenue” -- which, as they are quick to point out, is not all revenue. The owners want to give them less, and an 18 percent pay cut to boot (at least according to the players). They’ll have arguments over free agency, the salary cap, a rookie wage scale and how to deal with the health and financial problems of retired players. There are so many issues and they’re so far apart that a year may not be nearly enough time.

In fact, it won’t be if you listen to DeMaurice Smith, the rookie head of the NFL Players Association. During his own State of the Labor Talks press conference at the Super Bowl he was asked what the likelihood of a lockout was on a scale of 1 to 10.

His alarming answer was “14.”

Privately, many people around the league share the same opinion of doomsday for the NFL. There’s a belief that the two sides are far too dug in, with owners writing “lockout language” into their TV deals that will provide for them even if games aren’t played, and with players being instructed to save as much as 25 percent of their salary next season, just in case. Much of this is posturing, to be sure.

But there’s also no doubt the hands of both sides are wrapped increasingly tightly around the golden goose’s neck.

Who is right and who is wrong doesn’t really matter, either, because it’s a pox on both their houses if they manage to mess this up. There’s not an owner in the NFL who isn’t traveling by private jet and limo and living in an enormous house. And even the lowliest player in the league is making an absurd salary compared to people with important jobs like teacher, policeman, firefighter and soldier. And all the while owners increase their ticket prices, scam their fans with overpriced personal seat licenses and water down their $10 beers. Meanwhile, players distance themselves from their fans more than ever, except on the rare occasions they sign autographs -- for a hefty fee, of course.

That’s been the trend for years -- fans paying more and more for less and less -- but the one saving grace for fans everywhere has been that the games and the competition have never been better. Yes, the fans are abused, their loyalty is taken for granted, and they are robbed at every turn. Their tax dollars are leveraged, their heroes turn out to be criminals, and their favorite player leaves town five minutes after all his jerseys were bought from the store.

But every Sunday they forget that for 17 wonderful weeks, plus another month of the playoffs. And the NFL gives them something that hockey, basketball and baseball can’t -- a real chance that this could be their favorite team’s year. Fifteen of the NFL’s 32 teams have appeared in a Super Bowl since the turn of the century. Seven more have appeared in their conference championship games. Just ask the newly crowned Super Bowl champions, the New Orleans Saints, and last year’s Super losers, the Arizona Cardinals. A few years ago they and their fans were the laughingstocks of the NFL. But nobody’s laughing anymore.

Every team has a chance every year, and games are more exciting than ever. Fans keep taking the abuse because they love the product, because they live for the games, and because the excitement on a week-to-week basis is absolutely off the charts.

“I feel we have a pretty good thing going right now in the NFL,” said Peyton Manning. “It would be a shame for something to have to change along those lines.”

Yes, it would be a terrible shame. It would be worse than that, in fact. It would be ironic, too, since the league is led by a commissioner who joined an expedition to the top of Mount Rainier back in July. Like his league, he made it to the peak and he called it a life-changing experience. It would be a shame if the lesson he took from that climb is that there’s nowhere to go but down.

Somehow, Goodell needs to find a way to save this sport. Smith needs to find that way, too. They have too much money at stake to blow this all to bits. And their fans have invested too much money, time and heart into the sport to have the rug pulled out from under them just when things are really getting good.