Road to Precision
When Super Bowl XLIV kicks off at the newly named Sun Life Stadium in South Florida on Feb. 7, the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints will be led by arguably the top two quarterbacks in the NFL.
And while Peyton Manning and Drew Brees may have reached the same destination, they took decidedly different routes to get there. Manning was drafted No. 1 overall out of Tennessee by the Colts (over Ryan Leaf) in 1998, while Brees was passed over by the Chargers (in favor of Philip Rivers) and Dolphins (who preferred Daunte Culpepper) as a free agent before landing with the Saints in 2006.
Heading into Super Sunday, Manning and Brees are obviously the right men for the job. But those decisions weren’t always so clear cut.
Hindsight is 18-18
Archie Manning’s middle son has thrown for 50,128 yards and 366 touchdowns, collected a record four league MVP awards along with a Super Bowl XLI MVP trophy -- which, coincidentally, was earned in South Florida at the site of this year’s big game -- while playing in 192 consecutive regular season games over 12 seasons. Another Super Bowl victory would place the 33-year-old Manning firmly in the discussion as the greatest to ever play the position, if he’s not already there.
Meanwhile, Leaf threw for only 3,666 yards, 14 touchdowns and 36 interceptions over 25 games with the Chargers and Cowboys from 1998-2001, and is known more for his locker room rants and prescription drug arrests. The 33-year-old, 6-foot-5, 235-pound former Washington State star -- who, along with Manning, Michigan’s Charles Woodson and Marshall’s Randy Moss, formed one of the best Heisman Trophy finalist quartets in the award’s history -- is now the posterboy for NFL Draft busts.
But in 1998, the Manning vs. Leaf debate was a coin toss.
“You have to remember, it was viewed almost universally that either guy would be a good pick and both were going to be successful in this league,” Colts owner Robert Irsay recently reminded The Dallas Morning News. “We gave it a lot of consideration, but we went through the process. (Team President) Bill Polian did a great job, and his staff, (Coach) Jim Mora, analyzing everything.”
Although Polian -- who was also the architect of the four-straight Super Bowl runner-up squads in Buffalo as well as an earlier-than-expected contender for expansion Carolina, racking up the NFL’s Executive of the Year six times (1988, ’91, ’95, ’96, ’99, and 2009) along the way -- ultimately got the Manning vs. Leaf decision right, many knowledgeable football minds felt Leaf was better equipped to lead a team to the Super Bowl, something Manning has done twice in four years.
In a piece entitled “Big Man, Big Arm: I’d Take Leaf” that ran in the April 20, 1998 issue of ESPN The Magazine, respected analyst and quarterback expert Ron Jaworski -- who led the Eagles to Super Bowl XV on the gridiron before moving into the film room to become one of the hardest working, best informed and most entertaining personalities on television and in print -- thought Leaf had better tools than Manning.
“Ryan Leaf is the prototype passer in this regard; he’s a big, strong guy who can deliver the ball in tough situations … Leaf has the body and the heart to hang in the pocket when a lot of quarterbacks won’t … His strength allows him to throw balls that other players can’t.”
In fact, the Worldwide Leader’s cover story feature of the same issue, “Day & Night” by Stephen Rodrick, concluded that Leaf was a better long-term selection than Manning.
“Sorry, Archie, I’m taking Ryan. … Come 2018, Ryan Leaf, not Manning, will be strutting up to a podium in Canton.”
Historically, No. 1 overall picks at quarterback have won 13 of the 43 Super Bowls.
QB, Team (Drafted) – Super Bowl wins
Peyton Manning, Colts (1998) – XLI
Eli Manning, Giants (Chargers, 2004) – XLII
Troy Aikman, Cowboys (1989) – XXVII, XXVIII, XXX
John Elway, Broncos (Colts, 1983) – XXXII, XXXIII
Jim Plunkett, Raiders (Patriots, 1971) – XV, XVIII
Terry Bradshaw, Steelers (1970) – IX, X, XIII, XIV
With nearly one out of every three Vince Lombardi Trophies going to top picks leading the huddle, the 1998 decision of Manning vs. Leaf becomes even more important — and infinitely more obvious — in hindsight, where No. 18 is the easy answer.
New Orleans Resolution
On New Year’s Eve 2005, Drew Brees was knocked out of the regular season finale -- ultimately a meaningless game for the 9–7 Chargers against the playoff-bound Broncos, but easily the most influential game of Brees’ career. In fact, the game had arguably the biggest impact on the football landscape, both college and pro, of any since 2000.
Late in the second quarter, Brees was blindsided by blitzing Denver safety John Lynch, whose strip-sack forced a fumble. As Brees instinctively went for the loose ball, 6-foot-4, 325-pound defensive tackle Gerard Warren fell on the right throwing arm of the pending free agent quarterback. Brees left the field in obvious pain and returned with his arm in a sling to watch Rivers complete 12-of-22 passes for 115 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception in a 23–7 loss.
Days later, Brees went under the knife of renowned surgeon Dr. James Andrews, who repaired the torn labrum and partially torn rotator cuff in his shoulder. As a result, Chargers general manager A.J. Smith made the decision not place the franchise tag on the battered Brees, making the undersized (6-foot, 210 pounds) overachiever a reportedly lowball backup quarterback contract offer and putting the team in the hands of Philip Rivers, who had completed 17-of-30 passes for 148 yards, one touchdown and one interception while taking 64 snaps over four games (zero starts) in two seasons.
But Rivers had been coveted by Smith as the centerpiece of one of the NFL Draft’s biggest trades, a blockbuster deal that sent the Bolts’ No. 1 overall pick, Eli Manning, to the Giants for No. 4 overall pick Rivers in 2004. On the other hand, Brees was intended to be a backup until a lengthy contract holdout by Rivers was followed by a Pro Bowl season by Brees, who threw for 3,159 yards, 27 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 15 games in 2004 after struggling for 2,108 yards, 11 touchdowns and 15 interceptions in only 11 games the previous season.
A solid 2005 season (3,576 yards, 24 TDs, 15 INTs) made the Brees vs. Rivers situation one of the league’s hottest debates. But Brees’ shoulder injury essentially made Smith’s decision for him, causing a domino effect around the NFL and eventually the NCAA.
After Brees was thrown out onto the open market, his agent, Tom Condon, pursued a contract with the Dolphins, who were coming off of a 9–7 season with long-in-the-tooth quarterback Gus Frerotte managing games in Nick Saban’s first year as a head coach in the NFL. Obviously looking to upgrade at the position, Miami narrowed its decision down to two former Pro Bowl signal-callers coming off of injuries — Brees and Vikings dual-threat Daunte Culpepper, who had the torn ACL, MCL and PCL in his right knee repaired by Andrews.
Saban and the Dolphins’ decision makers grilled Andrews and other specialists regarding the health of both Brees and Culpepper. In the end, the verdict went in favor of Culpepper, a Florida native whose best seasons came with Randy Moss and Cris Carter as his receivers in Minnesota.
Miami’s choice turned out to be not only wrong — as the Dolphins have gone 25–39, while the Saints are 38–26 with two NFC title game appearances and a Super Bowl berth since 2006 — but haunting, as Brees will play in his first Super Bowl on the home turf of the Dolphins. Worse, Culpepper cost Miami a second round draft pick, while Brees was an unrestricted free agent. Statistically, Brees vs. Culpepper has become the offseason's version of the lopsided Manning vs. Leaf draft debate.
Drew Brees, Saints (2006-09)
38–25 record (3–1 playoffs)
63-of-64 possible games
1,572-of-2,355 (66.8 percent)
18,298 yards
122 TDs, 57 INTs
Daunte Culpepper, Dolphins (2006), Raiders (’07), Lions (’08-09)
3–17 record (0–0 playoffs)
20-of-64 possible games
338-of-592 (57.1 percent)
3,991 yards
14 TDs, 20 INTs
Things didn’t turn out as bad for the Chargers, who have not made the Super Bowl but have made the playoffs in each of Rivers’ four seasons as a starter.
Philip Rivers, Chargers (2006-09)
46–18 record (3–4 playoffs)
64-of-64 possible games
1,190-of-1,884 (63.2 percent)
14,803 yards
105 TDs, 44 INTs
Having been rejected by both the Chargers and Dolphins, Condon was running out of buyers for Brees. The best chance for a Pro Bowl quarterback payday was with the Saints, a desperate franchise recovering from Hurricane Katrina with a recently hired rookie coach in Sean Payton and rampant rumors of a potential relocation to San Antonio or Los Angeles.
Two teams’ trash turned into fleur-de-lis old gold treasure for both New Orleans and Brees, who signed a six-year, $60 million deal with $10 million guaranteed and another $12 million due after the first year of the contract.
Brees’ arrival in the Big Easy reverberated across the football landscape. Rather than selecting one of the draft’s top quarterbacks -- Texas’ Vince Young, USC’s Matt Leinart or Vanderbilt’s Jay Cutler -- the Saints took USC triple-threat Reggie Bush with the No. 2 overall pick. And after going 6–10 with the Dolphins in 2006 (including a 1–3 mark with Culpepper as the starter), Saban headed back to school at Alabama, where he earned a BCS national title this season.
Of course, Brees’ biggest impact has been on the Saints, who are undoubtedly remaining in New Orleans after transforming from the “Aints” of old to the new NFC champs -- with a trip to the team’s first Super Bowl in 43 years -- all over the course of four seasons, thanks to the Chargers and Dolphins choosing Rivers and Culpepper over Brees.
