Editor's Note: Click here to see the Athlon staff's Super Bowl predictions
There is a goodness about Super Bowl XLIV I can’t help but like.
There are the New Orleans Saints, the former sad-sack franchise that finally reached the Super Bowl in its 43rd season and has lifted the spirits and hopes of an entire region that continues to rebuild after being devastated by Hurricane Katrina more than four years ago. The Saints are led by Drew Brees, a have-to-prove-it-every-step-of-the-way quarterback who decided his career and the city of New Orleans should rebuild together, a scenario that unfolded just as he had hoped when he signed four years ago with the Saints, the only team that offered him a contract.
There are the Indianapolis Colts, the franchise that won more games than any other in the just-completed decade -- more than any team in any decade, in fact -- and is led by the league’s most skillful quarterback, Peyton Manning. There’s a reason Manning is the league’s most prominent pitchman, too -- he is admirable on the field and likable off it, thanks to a sterling reputation and a sense of humor that Saturday Night Live once unveiled. He also gets points for his ties to New Orleans, where he grew up and where his father, Archie, was all Saints fans had to cheer for many a season. About the only mark against Peyton is, for some, overexposure.
But it’s more than the quarterbacks. It’s both teams, really. You won’t find a Terrell Owens or Michael Vick in the bunch, no self-promoting egomaniac or franchise-shaming criminal. New Orleans backup defensive tackle Anthony Hargrove served a year-long drug suspension in 2008, but that was before he became a Saint, and he now stands as a positive story of rehabilitation and redemption. And you’ll find plenty of guys like Saints running back Pierre Thomas and Colts defensive tackle Daniel Muir, undrafted players whose presence on an NFL roster is surprising enough, but whose roles as starters serve as inspiration to NFL long shots everywhere.
Unless you have a Saints jersey in your closet or a Colts helmet on your shelf, it’s hard to root against either team. Super Bowl XLIV won’t be a love-fest, but it will match a pair of highly admirable teams that also happen to be the two very best in the league. Which is about all you can hope for.
Oh, and did I mention that both teams have high-powered offenses that can score touchdowns in bunches? Yeah, that’s another reason to like this game. Let’s face it, the Giants’ 17-14 upset of the Patriots two years ago had a thrilling finish, but it also was pretty boring until the fourth quarter.
Super Bowl XLIV should be anything but dull. The Saints led the league in total offense and scoring offense, and the Colts were ninth and seventh, respectively. It was Week 15 before the Saints scored fewer than 24 points in a game, while the Colts scored in the 30s seven times and 27 or more in 11 games.
If there was any doubt that Brees ranks among the league’s elite quarterbacks heading into this season, it’s gone now. Brees eclipsed 4,000 passing yards for the fourth time in his four years in New Orleans, and his 109.6 passer rating led the league. He has a ton of weapons and loves to spread the ball among Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, Lance Moore, tight end Jeremy Shockey and running backs Reggie Bush and Thomas. He is a smart quarterback who can handle blitzes, and his quick release often negates opposing pass rushes.
And therein lies the biggest question mark in Super Bowl XLIV: Can the Colts’ pass rush thrive with a gimpy Dwight Freeney -- or perhaps without him entirely? Freeney tore a ligament in his ankle in the AFC title game, and his availability Sunday is very much in doubt. Freeney and Robert Mathis are the fastest, most disruptive pair of defensive ends in the game, but Mathis’ effectiveness will be impaired if Freeney isn’t drawing extra blockers on the other side. And the Saints will be all the more dangerous if they don’t have to keep an extra tight end or back in to protect Brees.
Indy’s pass rush is critical for a defensive secondary that has talent (safety Antoine Bethea, in particular) but also concerns, namely a rookie cornerback who figures to be in Brees’ crosshairs. Either Jerraud Powers, a third-round pick last April who missed the Colts’ last playoff game after hurting his foot in the previous one, or undrafted rookie Jacob Lacey will start opposite Kelvin Hayden. Both rookies have performed relatively well while combining for 23 regular-season and postseason starts, but the more time Brees has in the pocket, the more time he’ll have to exploit either one.
The Colts were only 24th in the league against the run this season, allowing 126.5 yards per game, but they held two of the league’s most potent running games -- the Ravens’ and Jets’ -- to under 100 yards each in their two playoff games. Linebackers Clint Session and Gary Brackett will look to bottle up Bush and Thomas, who along with Mike Bell took turns sparking a ground game that finished sixth in the NFL. Bush doesn’t touch the ball a lot, but when he does, he is very good at finding the end zone. He has fresh legs after a season of limited use, and in recent weeks he has shown a greater willingness to initiate contact rather than dance around looking for a hole. Thomas is a versatile player who can run inside and outside -- he even soared over the pile for a crucial first down in the NFC title game against the Vikings -- and he is a capable receiver.
The Colts can only imagine what it must be like to have a potent ground game. They had the league’s worst running attack this season, and when Joseph Addai rushed for 80 yards against the Jets two weeks ago, it marked the first time either he or rookie Donald Brown had reached that less-than-lofty plateau all season. But the fact that the Colts exceeded 100 yards as a team against the league’s stingiest defense was a positive sign for a team that would like to make things a bit easier on Manning.
Not that he worries about it much. Even with the pressure squarely on him all season, Manning carved up defenses left and right on his way to an unprecedented fourth league MVP award. He is the smartest, most resourceful player in the game, and he turned a fourth-round rookie (Austin Collie) and a second-year nobody (Pierre Garcon) into stars. That’s why No. 1 receiver Reggie Wayne can get blanketed all afternoon by the likes of the Jets’ Darrelle Revis and Manning can still throw for 377 yards and three touchdowns. And don’t forget about Dallas Clark, who joined Tony Gonzalez as the only NFL tight ends ever to record 100 catches in a season. Addai also is a frequent target out of the backfield as the Colts often use the short passing game to accomplish what their running game typically can’t.
The Saints will try to counter the Colts’ No. 2-ranked passing attack with a secondary led by safety Darren Sharper that has gotten stronger with the return to health of cornerbacks Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter. Greer isn’t a shutdown corner in the mold of Revis or Nnamdi Asomugha, but he is only a notch or two below and should give Wayne, Collie and Garcon -- whoever he happens to line up against -- a good battle. Sharper tied for the league high this season with nine interceptions, three of which he returned for touchdowns.
Indeed, Sharper is the face of a defense that can hardly be mentioned without attaching the adjective “opportunistic.” The Saints are nothing special against the run or pass, but they had 39 takeaways this season, one behind NFL leader Green Bay, and turned them into 141 points (tied with the Packers for tops in the league). That formula worked to perfection against the Vikings a couple weeks ago and made the difference in a few other games this season, but it’s no sure thing against the Colts. Manning is careful with the ball, and the Colts lost only five fumbles all season.
In their last two games, the Saints have pounded two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks, Kurt Warner and Brett Favre, into submission (and at least one of them into retirement). Both passers were hit repeatedly, and the Saints will go after Manning just as hard, with end Will Smith (13 sacks) leading the charge and blitzers such as middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma and pretty much anyone else in the back seven coming from various angles. But it’s a rare blitz Manning doesn’t know how to handle, and he works behind a good line that allowed only 10 sacks during the regular season. The Jets appeared to have solved that mystery with two early sacks in the AFC title game, but Manning regrouped, never went down again and eventually gave the Jets an aerial whuppin’ the likes of which they hadn’t felt all year. That’s what Manning does.
And that’s what the Saints must deal with if they are to parlay their first Super Bowl appearance into their first NFL championship. Though not favored by the oddsmakers, New Orleans appears to have the support of the masses, who appreciate what a win would mean to that ravaged city and success-starved franchise. But the Saints first must get past the son of New Orleans’ favorite son.
